ABPW10 PGTW 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191000Z-200600ZJUL2024//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190921ZJUL2024//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190922ZJUL2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.7N 118.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM 
EAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING 
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 190124Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH A 
WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-15KTS) VWS, GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL STEER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 190930) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.5N 132.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 865 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190416Z GMI 89 GHZ COLOR 
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CORE CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE 
BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL INTO A STRONG TUTT CELL NEAR 23N 142E. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW (5-15 KNOTS) WITH WARM SST VALUES (30C). 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH RAPID CONSOLIDATION. GFS AND ECMWF 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK AND RAPID CONSOLIDATION PHASE, WITH INCREASING SPREAD AND 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW 
190930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) AND 
PARAGRAPH 1.B.(2) TO HIGH.//
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