WTPN22 PGTW 190930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190921Z JUL 24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 
190930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 133.2E TO 16.4N 127.9E WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF 
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE 
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190900Z INDICATES 
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.4E. THE SYSTEM IS 
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.5N 132.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 865 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190416Z GMI 89 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
PERSISTENT CORE CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED 
BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A STRONG TUTT CELL NEAR 23N 
142E. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW (5-15 KNOTS) WITH 
WARM SST VALUES (30C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH RAPID CONSOLIDATION. 
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND RAPID CONSOLIDATION PHASE, WITH INCREASING 
SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES 
POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
200930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.0E.//
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