ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZJUL2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1N 119.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 190124Z MHS 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (05-15KTS) 
VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL STEER 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT 48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.8N 133.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY 527 NM 
NORTHEAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A BROAD, WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. A 190416Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
92W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (10-15KT), GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS 
(30C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT INTENSIFIES QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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