ABPW10 PGTW 190100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/190100Z-190600ZJUL2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.8N 125.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 759 NM 
EAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH 
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW (05-15KTS) VWS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL 
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) IS LOCATED NEAR
11.8N 133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 277 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF TURNING 
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. FORMATIVE CLOUD
BANDS WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOTH 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS MADE EVIDENT BY THE CIRRUS 
FILAMENTS FLOWING IN EITHER DIRECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
92W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(10-15KT), POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (27-28C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
WITH ROBUST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM 
AND PARA 1.B.(2) TO LOW.//
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