ABPW10 PGTW 141600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141600Z-150600ZJUL2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141521ZJUL2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.3N 111.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.9E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 141050Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED, 
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
HOWEVER, A 141325Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC, 
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH PERSISTENT EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CORE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 
KNOTS), WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C ARE CONDUCIVE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER VIETNAM OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 141530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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