ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZJUL2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.0N 112.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) NEAR 14.6N 111.2E 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC TURNING, WITH FRAGMENTED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE PERIPHERY. A 132256Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH NO DISCERNABLE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 140217Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS A 
BROAD CORE OF WEAK WINDS (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS), WITH AN EXTENSIVE SWATH 
OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DISPLACED OVER 250 NM SOUTH OF 
THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH 
INCREASING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CORE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY 
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS 
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS), WHICH IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C ARE CONDUCIVE. GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD VIETNAM OVER THE NEXT 36 
HOURS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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