ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZJUL2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1N 113.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 112.7E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13.0N 113.3E, 
WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SURGE EVENT. A 122320Z SSMIS 37 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO 
DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, A 130152Z ASCAT-C 
IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED, WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH, WITH A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DISPLACED WELL 
TO THE SOUTH (GREATER THAN 180 NM). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET 
BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C ARE CONDUCIVE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD VIETNAM OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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