WTPN21 PHNC 032000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0N 104.1W TO 17.7N 107.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 104.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
104.4W, APPROXIMATELY 1300 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031710Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLDIDATING WITH PERSISTING
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
042000Z.//
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