ABIO10 PGTW 242300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/242300Z-251800ZMAY2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.1N 89.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN QUADRANT. A 
241959Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE 
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 242000Z 
BUOY OBSERVATION (23093) INDICATES WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 14 KNOTS 
WITH A SLP VALUE OF 995 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WEAK POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST 
(30-31 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD BANGLADESH 
WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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