WTIO21 PGTW 242230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 89.4E TO 20.5N 89.3E WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF 
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE 
ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 242200Z INDICATES THAT 
A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 89.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 
NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.1N 89.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN QUADRANT. A 241959Z ATMS 
88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 242000Z BUOY OBSERVATION 
(23093) INDICATES WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 14 KNOTS WITH A SLP VALUE 
OF 995 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW 
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (30-31 C). 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD BANGLADESH WITH STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
252230Z.//
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