ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/241800Z-
251800ZMAY2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.6N 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING, INTENSE 
CONVECTIVE BURSTS. A 241511Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH NO CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SEVERAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS (23093, 23092, 23091) 
NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE WEAK 5-10 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP VALUES AT 997 MB; 
ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SHOW 20-25 
KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW 
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (30-31 C). 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD BANGLADESH WITH STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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