ABPW10 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/241500Z-250600ZMAY2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZMAY2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.9N 128.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY 126 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240803Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT AN 
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C), MODERATE DUAL 
CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15-20 KT) AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO STEER NORTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN RE-INTENSIFY AS IT RECURVES BACK OVER WATER 
PAST TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 241400) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
NNNN