WTPN21 PGTW 241400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 126.8E TO 13.6N 122.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 126.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 
128.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY 126 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 240803Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT AN OBSCURED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C), MODERATE DUAL 
CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15-20 KT) AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO STEER NORTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN RE-INTENSIFY AS IT RECURVES BACK OVER WATER 
PAST TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
251400Z.//
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