WTPN21 PGTW 231430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221421ZMAY2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 221430). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 134.9E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM WEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230855Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPANSIVE BUT WEAK SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED 
FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A BROAD AND LOOSELY DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15-20 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL 
GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SAMAR, PHILIPPINES AND MAKE 
LANDFALL BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
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