WTPN21 PGTW 231430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221421ZMAY2024//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.6N 131.3E TO 12.1N 124.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 131.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 
134.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM WEST OF 
PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230855Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPANSIVE BUT WEAK SYSTEM WITH 
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A BROAD AND LOOSELY DEFINED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 
C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W 
WILL GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SAMAR, PHILIPPINES AND MAKE 
LANDFALL BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 221430).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241430Z.//
NNNN