WTPN21 PGTW 221430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.3N 135.3E TO 8.6N 131.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 4.8N 137.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 112 NM 
SOUTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRA SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
93S OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER 
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A 220908Z SSIMS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING 
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10KTS). THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION 
AS A POINT SOURCE ALOFT FEEDS IN TO A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE 
NORTHWEST THAT IS SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
231430Z.
//
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