ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/191800Z-
201800ZMAY2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZMAY2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191352ZMAY2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19MAY24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
7.4S 45.2E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, AND 
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 191500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
2.4S 74.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.4S 75.2E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLC. A 191310Z 
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER 
THE WESTERN QUADRANT WITH SHALLOW BANDING EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN 
QUADRANT. A 191601Z ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION 
WITH 30-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION, AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, 
WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C), 
AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40-50KT). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL GENERALLY TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS 
WHILE WEAKENING STEADILY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 
191400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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