ABIO10 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/191500Z-191800ZMAY2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZMAY2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191352ZMAY2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19MAY24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 7.4S 45.2E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 191500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
2.6S 74.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.4S 74.5E, APPROXIMATELY 324 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 191108Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN APPARENT LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WITH CURVED DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. 
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, 
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C), 
AND VERY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (35-40KT). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL GENERALLY TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 
151400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
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