ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/181800Z-
191800ZMAY2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351ZMAY2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18MAY24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IALY) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
7.8S 47.9E, APPROXIMATELY 668 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND 
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 181500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
1.9S 72.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.6S 74.0E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND AN 181323Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOSED 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. AN 181622Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL IMAGE 
INDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT WESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH HIGH (40-50KTS) VWS AND EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW, OFFSET BY WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN