ABIO10 PGTW 161000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/161000Z-161800ZMAY2024//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160921Z MAY 24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 160930)//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.8S 52.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 53.0E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
AND A 160607Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION 
OF THE SYSTEM. THE DATA FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT PASS ALSO 
INDICATES ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OVER 30 KNOTS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VWS, 
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
WITH 92S TRACKING WESTWARD AND CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 160930) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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