WTXS21 PGTW 160930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2S 53.3E TO 8.4S 50.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
160600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4S
53.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.8S 52.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 53.0E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
AND A 160607Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION 
OF THE SYSTEM. THE DATA FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT PASS ALSO 
INDICATES ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS OVER 30 KNOTS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VWS, 
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
WITH 92S TRACKING WESTWARD AND CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
170930Z.
//
NNNN