ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/151800Z-
161800ZMAY2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.7S 53.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 52.3E, APPROXIMATELY 574 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COMOROS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
AND A 151402Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY RAGGED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO  MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW POLEWARD, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION 
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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