ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZAPR2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.8S 152.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 152.7E, APPROXIMATELY 373 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY MSI SHOWS A VERY COMPACT CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A TIMELY 
100329Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICORWAVE PASS REVEALS A NASCENT MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE 
FEATURE, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. 
THE COLOR-ENHANCED 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A CYAN RING SURROUNDING THE 
NASCENT EYE FEATURE, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IS 
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL AND 
MESOSCALE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY WHILE HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN