ABPW10 PGTW 100000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/100000Z-100600ZAPR2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.8S 152.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 152.7E, APPROXIMATELY 373 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
091940Z SSMIS F-16 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION 
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, 
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, DRY AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE A 
LIMITING FACTOR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE 
CIRCULATION TRACKS SOUTH OF PAPAU NEW GUINEA. BEYOND 48 HOURS, 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE 
HOSTILE AS VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INCREASE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B. (1) TO MEDIUM.//
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