ABPW10 PGTW 091900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/091900Z-100600ZAPR2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8S 
152.4E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091514Z ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. HOWEVER, DRY AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE A LIMITING 
FACTOR. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97P WILL TURN 
WEST AND TRAVEL JUST SOUTH OF PAPAU NEW GUINEA. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND 
ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1)//
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