ABIO10 PGTW 041930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/041930Z-051800ZAPR2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041851ZAPR2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5S 119.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 119.3E, APPROXIMATELY 687 NM WEST 
OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION, DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-15 KTS) 
COUPLED WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF 
AUSTRALIA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY 
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS IT TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE ROBUST POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
041900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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