WTXS21 PGTW 041900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6S 119.7E TO 13.0S 117.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 119.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5S 119.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 119.3E, APPROXIMATELY 687 NM WEST 
OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION, DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-15 KTS) 
COUPLED WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF 
AUSTRALIA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY 
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS IT TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE ROBUST POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
051900Z.
//
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