ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/041800Z-
051800ZAPR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.2S 121.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 119.8E, APPROXIMATELY 658 NM WEST 
OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0939Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A MODERATELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF PERSISTING 
CONVECTION AND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD 
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (30C), AND 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 
TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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