ABIO10 PGTW 040230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/040230Z-041800ZAPR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.3S 122.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 121.0E, APPROXIMATELY 596 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2303Z GMI 89GHZ 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
WITH FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE INTO A MORE SYMMETRIC 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR 
DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C), LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AIDED WITH ROBUST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING 96S TO STEADILY HEAD 
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTING 
COURSE TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS FROM THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
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