ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/251800Z-
261800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.3S 52.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 52.9E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 1522Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
CONSOLIDATING INTO THE LLCC, WITH CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
ENHANCED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY WITH A 
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION, THEN VEER SOUTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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