ABIO10 PGTW 251400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/251400Z-251800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.3S 52.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 52.9E, APPROXIMATELY 398 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH 
A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER 
AND A FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 251006Z 
AMSR2 36 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS, WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 28-29 C, AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE 
ENHANCED BY A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE 
SOUTH. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL 
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION OVER THE NEXT 
48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
251330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN