ABIO10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/250600Z-251800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.5S 52.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 52.4E, APPROXIMATELY 392 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 250245Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF 
THE LLC. A 241751Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 
STRONGER WINDS (25 KTS) WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 28-29 C, AND 
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO 
THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK 
MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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