ABIO10 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/250200Z-251800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5S
52.7E, APPROXIMATELY 444 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 242150Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION AS WELL
AS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED, BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK (10-15KTS) VWS
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), OFFSET BY WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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