ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/191800Z-
201800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 18S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.1S 111.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 111.5E, APPROXIMATELY 302 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) AS WELL AS FLARING CONVECTION. A 191426Z ASCAT PASS 
INDICATES PREDOMINANTLY 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION 
OF THE CIRCULATION, WHICH IS FURTHER CONFIRMED IN THE BYU HIGH-
RESOLUTION ENHANCED VERSION ASCAT PRODUCT. ADDITIONALLY, AN EARLIER SMOS 
PASS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL COVERAGE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY FURTHER 
SUPPORTS THE ANALYSIS, DESPITE HIGHER SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE DUE TO DRY 
AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY ROBUST 
POLEWARD VENTING, AND WARM SST (27-28C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE 
SYSTEM WILL REINTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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