ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/131800Z-
141800ZMAR2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131352ZMAR2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130751ZMAR2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 13MAR24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.3S 111.5E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 131500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 13MAR24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 26.0S 33.1E, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 130900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.5S 129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 129.5E, APPROXIMATELY 129 NM 
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 131315Z ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING 
WITH A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VWS, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, 
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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