ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.4S 141.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY 76 NM NORTH 
OF WEIPA. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD 
WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM 
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, COUPLED WITH ENHANCED EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES TOWARDS HIGH VWS (30-40KT). NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE 93P ADVANCING 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BRIEFLY TRACKING OVER LAND, THEN 
FURTHER DECAYING AS IT MAINTAINS AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.  ENSEMBLES 
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO INTENSITY WITH GEFS DISPLAYING 
MULTIPLE MEMBERS INTENSIFYING THE CIRCULATION WHEREAS ECENS MEMBERS ARE 
ON A SIMILAR TRACK BUT DO NOT REACH TC INTENSITY IN RECENT MODEL RUNS.   
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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