ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.0S 139.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 171.7E, APPROXIMATELY 318 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 0440Z 
HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC  
WITH FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
(15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS UNDER FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE 93P ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEAST 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BRIEFLY TRACKING OVER LAND, THEN FURTHER 
INTENSIFYING AS IT MAINTAINS AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, 93P 
WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH VWS (30-40KT) INTO THE CORAL SEA WHICH MAY HINDER 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 
TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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