ABIO10 PGTW 102130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/102130Z-111800ZMAR2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101951ZMAR2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100852ZMAR2024//
NARR/REFS A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 10MAR24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 38.5E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST OF BEIRA, 
MOZAMBIQUE, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 102100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.4S 39.2E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.1S 98.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 98.9E, APPROXIMATELY 112 NM 
EAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101203Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS DEPICT CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER 
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGION OF THE LLCC, STRENGTHENING THE 
CIRCULATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) 
INDICATE STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 22-24 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OVER 
THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY 
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING 
STATUS//
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