ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZMAR2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100851ZMAR2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100852ZMAR2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.4S 39.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 38.9E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST 
OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH IMPROVED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  A 101525Z SSMIS 37 
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LLC, WITH SHALLOW 
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 100650Z ASCAT-C IMAGE 
INDICATES 30-35 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT TO THE EAST, WRAPPING INTO 
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VWS OFFSET BY 
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY CONSOLIDATION AS THE CORE 
CONTINUES TO RE-MOISTEN, WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE 
MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.3S 97.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 98.0E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101203Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS DEPICT CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER 
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGION OF THE LLCC, STRENGTHENING THE 
CIRCULATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) 
INDICATE STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 22-24 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OVER 
THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY 
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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