ABIO10 PGTW 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/101000Z-101800ZMAR2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100851ZMAR2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100852ZMAR2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 21.9S 40.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM 
EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC), WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  
A 100239Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED 
LLC, WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND PERSISTENT 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 100558Z 
ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES 30-35 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 130 NM TO THE 
EAST, WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
STEADY CONSOLIDATION AS THE CORE CONTINUES TO RE-MOISTEN, WITH A 
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0S 95.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 97.3E, 506 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 
CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
100731Z AMSR2 89 GHZ PASS DEPICT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION THAT IS 
STARTING TO BUILD NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP 
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO BUILD MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL 
REGION OF THE LLCC, STRENGTHENING THE CIRCULATION. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE STEADY SOUTHWEST 
WINDS AT 20-22 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH SLP 
NEAR 1000 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATE AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS, WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF 
B (WTXS22 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN PARA. 2.B.(1) AND 
PARA. 2.B.(2) TO HIGH.//
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