WTXS22 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100851Z MAR 24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 100900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3S 97.0E TO 13.1S 104.8E WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED 
TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100600Z INDICATES THAT A 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 97.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 
EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0S 95.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 97.3E, 506 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 
CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100731Z 
AMSR2 89 GHZ PASS DEPICT CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION THAT IS STARTING TO 
BUILD NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION IS 
STARTING TO BUILD MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGION OF THE LLCC, 
STRENGTHENING THE CIRCULATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS 
ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20-22 KTS GUSTING TO 30 
KTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH SLP NEAR 1000 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) 
EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTERLY TO 
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
110900Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.2E.//
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