WTXS21 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.4S 39.5E TO 21.3S 35.2E WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF 
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE 
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100830Z INDICATES 
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.2E. THE SYSTEM IS 
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 21.9S 40.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM 
EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC), WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  
A 100239Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED 
LLC, WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND PERSISTENT 
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 100558Z 
ASCAT-B IMAGE INDICATES 30-35 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 130 NM TO THE 
EAST, WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
STEADY CONSOLIDATION AS THE CORE CONTINUES TO RE-MOISTEN, WITH A 
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
110900Z.//
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