ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.9S 
40.4E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE 
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 091538Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS 
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LLC, WITH A CURVED DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM 
EUROPA ISLAND INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS AT 12-18 KNOTS, WITH SLP NEAR 
1007 MB AND A 1 MB SLP DECREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE STEADY CONSOLIDATION. AS THE CORE RE-MOISTENS, WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0S 
95.3E, 90 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1527Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A 
DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH AREAS OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 091007Z 
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LINEAR BAND OF DISORGANIZED 
CONVECTION, WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC) INDICATE STEADY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 17-22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH SLP 
NEAR 1004 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 
HIGH (30-40KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
AN EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH A BROAD OVERALL 
STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED AREAS OF 30-35 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS 
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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