ABIO10 PGTW 091400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/091400Z-091800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.4S 41.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 40.4E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM 
NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 091131Z ATMS
88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WEAK LLC, WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED TO THE NORTH.  
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA ISLAND INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS
AT 12-18 KNOTS, WITH SLP NEAR 1007.0 MB AND A 1 MB SLP DECREASE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY CONSOLIDATION 
AS THE CORE RE-MOISTENS, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE 
MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
     (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.9S 91.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 95.3E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM 
WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FLARING 
DEEP CONVECTION. A 091007Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A 
LINEAR BAND OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS 
(YPCC) INDICATE STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 17-22 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH SLP NEAR 1004 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET 
BY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH A BROAD OVERALL STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED 
AREAS OF 30-35 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM AND UPDATED PARA 2.B.(2).//
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