ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.0S 42.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4S 41.3E, APPROXIMATELY 86 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR), AND 081551Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW 
EQUATORWARD, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). INVEST 
90S IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A DRY AIR MASS WRAPPING INTO THE 
CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST AND WHICH IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR 
FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 90S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AS 
IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF AFRICA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS 
LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.5S 93.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR), A 081231Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND A 081548Z 
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
HIDDEN UNDERNEATH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A 
MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH 
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KTS) VWS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL CONTINUE AN EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS 
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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