ABIO10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/080600Z-081800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.8S 41.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.0S 42.0E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 071605Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW 
EQUATORWARD, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). 
HOWEVER, A DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR MASS WRAPPING INTO 90S FROM THE WEST IS 
THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE 
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF AFRICA OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.5S 
93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY(MSI) AND A 072353Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
CENTRALIZED FLARING CONVECTION EXTENDING OUTWARDS TO THE NORTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (30-40KTS) VWS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL 
CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHILE 
CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
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