ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/071800Z-
081800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.8S 41.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.0S 42.0E, APPROXIMATELY 99 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) AND A 071605Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD, AND WARM (28-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). HOWEVER, A DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR MASS 
WRAPPING INTO 90S FROM THE WEST IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN 
INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
90S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AS IT APPROACHES 
THE EAST COAST OF AFRICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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