ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/061800Z-
071800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.7S 41.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 41.4E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) AND A 061111Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WEAKLY-DEFINED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST 
OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, GOOD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SSTS, AND A DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR MASS TO THE 
WEST THAT IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE 
CHANNEL WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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