ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/041800Z-
051800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.2S 49.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 43.1E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOCALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 041508Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SHALLOW RAIN BANDS TO 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) 
SSTS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL 
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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