ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/031800Z-
041800ZMAR2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.1S 50.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 49.5E, APPROXIMATELY 362 NM EAST OF 
COMOROS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 031522Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 90S WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS, 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS, OFFSET BY FRICTIONAL 
EFFECTS AND DISRUPTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS 
THE CIRCULATION PASSES OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRACK WHILE TRANSITING OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR AND CONTINUING 
INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUN EXHIBITS 
STRONG DISAGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE 
PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN WAS QUITE BULLISH ABOUT BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO 
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH AS IT MOVED IN THE CHANNEL, BUT THE MOST RECENT 
RUN SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 
SLOW BUT STEADY CONSOLIDATION AND THEN INTENSIFICATION INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE IN THE LONGER TERM, IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CHANNEL. THE 
DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A HIGH AMOUNT OF 
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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